The 2020-21 NHL season looks like it will get underway in just over a month, meaning long suffering hockey fans are in the home stretch of what has been a meandering and difficult offseason.
As the weeks stretched to months, television networks began falling back on tried and true ways to keep viewers focused on the NHL. Classic games are a popular option and earlier in December I caught a 2006 playoff game involving the Edmonton Oilers and Detroit Red Wings.
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In the game, Chris Pronger seemed to be on the ice (or in the penalty box) the entire time. I looked it up — he played 28 minutes plus took two minor penalties, so it’s safe to say he was a major factor in the game. From the early minutes, it became a struggle for Edmonton to keep Detroit from adding to a 2-0 advantage, until Ales Hemsky (who was at the peak of his powers, age 22 and healthy) could hammer two past Red Wings goalie Manny Legace for the Oilers victory. The final goal, set up on a gorgeous pass by Sergei Samsonov, is embedded in the memory of Oilers nation.
The current Oilers have the top end skill, but the impact defenceman eludes them. Is that a necessary piece to this team’s Stanley Cup puzzle? Or is this version of the club more similar to the glory years?
The past
Edmonton won five Stanley Cups in seven years with a fairly set defensive group. In the Ken Dryden book “Scotty: A Hockey Life Like No Other,” the NHL coach with the most career wins in the history of the game (Scotty Bowman) described the 1980s Oilers’ defence:
- “(Kevin) Lowe played with Lee Fogolin. He didn’t have a lot of natural ability but he had a lot of desire. He had toughness.”
- “Paul Coffey was a terrific offensive player. In some games he was so good. But he was high-risk, there’s no other way to say it.”
- “Charlie Huddy was solid. Huddy, Gregg, Jackson, and Fogolin weren’t really top notch guys but they got a lot of hockey out of them.”
That’s a fairly accurate description of the group, with a couple of quibbles. First, Lowe led his QMJHL team in points during his draft year but was never going to get power-play time ahead of Coffey. Second, I would argue that both Huddy and Gregg were highly intelligent defencemen and that aided their performance. Finally, I can’t let these descriptions go without pointing out that Fogolin set the tone for the group and taught sacrifice to Lowe and the others. I’ve never seen a more dedicated defender than Fogolin.
What did Pronger do?
At his best, and he was certainly that in Edmonton during 2005-06 and the postseason, Chris Pronger cut the game in half. He also contributed to the Oilers impressive possession numbers that season (53.8 percent of shots, 52 percent Corsi for percentage 5-on-5) but the team’s regular season goaltending (88.4) was a major drag on a championship calibre hockey club. (Source: Sunil Agnihotri).
Perhaps the best way to show how much impact Pronger had on the 2005-06 Oilers is the actual time on ice in each of the three game states:
Spacek was an in-season acquisition who helped out in all three areas, but even his presence can’t obscure the massive contributions of Pronger. He played against the other team’s elite personnel and calmed the waters. Oilers fans who remember his one season on the roster will recall the big man suppressing all manner of opposition rushes with seeming ease.
Let’s compare those numbers with the team’s defence in 2019-20, looking for players who had an impact in all three game states.
Only Oscar Klefbom could be included in a conversation with Pronger (and Spacek) from 14 years ago, but even that’s a stretch. Klefbom when healthy is a fine NHL defenceman but isn’t in the same realm as Pronger’s complete skill set. What’s more, there’s no obvious player on the list who can take over Klefbom’s power-play minutes (general manager Ken Holland signed Tyson Barrie in free agency to address the issue).
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Can the Oilers win a Stanley Cup without a Chris Pronger? Yes. Edmonton won five Stanley Cups with a Hall of Fame shutdown defenceman (Kevin Lowe) and three with one of the best offensive defencemen in the history of the game (Paul Coffey). Quality two-way defenders Huddy and Gregg, along with defence-first Jackson and Fogolin were enough to get those teams over the top due to strengths elsewhere on the roster.
McDavid and Draisaitl
The Oilers as an organization took an important step forward in January 2020, as Kailer Yamamoto joined Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on a line. The trio stormed through the rest of the season and erased some bad memories from the first half.
In 27 games together (according to Natural Stat Trick) the line outscored opponents 28-8 and had 53 percent of the shot share. It gave Tippett two fearsome lines to use as a hammer. Music!
Back to that Dryden book, and some prose from the author: “Gretzky and Messier were a great partnership — two centres, back to back. Survive Gretzky, good luck with Messier; make it through Messier, good luck with Gretzky.”
The Oilers have exactly two elite players: McDavid, Draisaitl. Playing them on the same line, now that Draisaitl has proven he can push the river, is no longer an option.
Since arriving, Holland has been building through the draft and free agency (almost no trades). No Pronger on the roster, nor in the pipeline, but Philip Broberg has two-way talent and brilliant speed if not an enforcer’s heart. Dylan Holloway may provide two-way acumen on the scoring lines, something the organization badly needs. Raphael Lavoie and Carter Savoie are scoring forwards who are matriculating.
Dominik Kahun was added in free agency to help solve the situation on left wing (Edmonton needs another Nuge). Edmonton needs the top two lines to win possession and outscore opponents five on five.
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No Pronger
Based on reporting from various sources, the Oilers pursued Jacob Markstrom and finished just shy of landing him. He checked down to Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith after checking out other options.
Holland signed a puck mover in Tyson Barrie with some of the leftover Markstrom money; Kyle Turris was added and Kahun, too.
Holland started the offseason with a list:
- Upgrade in goal
- Add speed and puck movement on defence
- Find a responsible left winger who can play on the skill lines
- A No. 3 centre with offensive flair
He accomplished three out of four and perhaps opportunity arrives at the deadline. At least his coach is happy entering training camp and that has value.
What does it all mean?
Holland and Tippett are going to make use of what is available and build depth around them. A complete defenceman would be a massive help; perhaps Broberg will be that player someday. A true No. 1 goaltender would make a big difference and the search continues.
Placing Draisaitl at centre means the Oilers are a more difficult opponent. The McDavid-Draisaitl lines could be championship quality and should help the team win enough games to make the playoffs in 2020-21.
I believe the team has made progress since Connor McDavid said he wasn’t happy with missing the playoffs. I believe the Oilers are closer to a Stanley Cup than they were when Holland took over.
The roster Edmonton will bring to the 2020-21 Canadian Division isn’t what Holland imagined. The goaltending did not improve; Oscar Klefbom is not available.
On the bright side, the team has two scoring lines that should turn into outscoring lines in the season to come, and a rush of young defencemen working to find their way to the NHL. Barrie to McDavid, Bear to Drasiaitl and at some point this season possibly Evan Bouchard threading cherry passes to the impact centres.
Edmonton can win the Stanley Cup with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl centering two separate lines and with six defencemen who bring a variety of skills without being complete players.
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The 2020-21 season will be the first full season with the formidable 1-2 punch deployed nightly. This is as close as I’ve seen to balance for an Oilers team since Pronger roamed the great white north.
The Canadian Division is going to be remarkable. The Edmonton Oilers will be a strong contender.
(Photo: Andy Devlin / NHLI via Getty Images)
Allan Mitchell is a contributor to The Athletic's Oilers coverage. Veteran radio broadcast. His blog, Lowetide, has chronicled the team since 2005. Follow Allan on Twitter @Lowetide
